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Commitment of Traders Report, September 16, 2022: Gold should not be aggressively chasing short positions in the oil market

Gold Price Today, Sep 22nd, 2022

Gold COT Report

Gold suffered two kills on Thursday night, breaking the annual line support and reaching the lowest target of 1660. However, the overnight trading volume in the US market was not as good as that of Tuesday’s decline. In addition to the weekly closing line on Friday, it is not recommended to chase too aggressively. If it breaks last night’s low again, the next target will be 1643.

From the perspective of options changes, 1672 will constitute the first resistance level, which will resonate with the resistance of order flow analysis. If this level is broken, you can pay attention to the possibility of gold prices rebounding to 1682-1687. The resistance in this range is expected to be strong, and the breakthrough is expected to break within the day. In a bear-led situation, look at 1700.

On the other hand, if the price of gold breaks below 1662, it will look at the 1652 level, and the short momentum is expected to be further strengthened. The main options betting targets below are 1642, 1622, and even 1602. There will be 2233 put options added here. Advance placement for aggressive bears.

Silver COT Report

After gold fell below the key support on Thursday, silver just stepped back to the 19.55 resistance, where it quickly followed the decline and fell into the upper edge of the 18.9-19.2 key support area. It opened this morning and fell to the lower edge of the range. It is still holding the key support. range, but if it cannot stabilize above 19.2, silver still has the risk of a downward test.

From the perspective of options changes, 19.25 is also a key position for long and short competition, which resonates with the important point of order flow, and breaks through this level to see 1945.-19.50. On the other hand, below 19.20, the primary target of the bears is 18.95-19, which will increase the downward momentum after falling below the material.

Crude Oil COT Report

The adjustment of demand expectations and the pressure on the dollar caused crude oil to fall below 88 yesterday and fall back to near 85 to complete the short target. The current stock of shorts near the current price is still large, but the open interest has not changed significantly. Long and short bets are concentrated on both ends, and the market has divergent expectations for future trends.

The long and short stocks around 87-87.5 are equivalent, but there are obvious bets on the short side, which constitutes resistance to oil prices in the short term. The 90 had 726 call option bets, forming a bull target.

On the other hand, we also need to pay attention to whether crude oil can stabilize the 85 support during the day. Here, the bears have the stock advantage, and a break below may intensify the downward momentum. The first support level is at 92.5. If it continues to the downside, see the 81 and 80 bear targets.

EUR COT Report

On Thursday, Europe and the United States maintained a narrow range and continued to digest the decline after the CPI announcement. The market is waiting for more fundamental signals.

In terms of options, the short action is still not small, and some of the put options at the 1.0 integer mark have left the market, becoming a long-short short-term competition. The price remains below 1.0, and the initiative will return to bears. The first support is at 0.995. There are a lot of put options at 0.99. The support is more critical. If it falls below, it is expected to test the previous short target of 0.985-0.9875 again.

On the contrary, if the price successfully returns to above 1.0, there may be some rebound momentum, but the call option is not willing to bet, and the room for a sharp rebound before the US market may be limited. 1.005, 1.01 have certain resistance, and 1.0175 has become the stage long target.

GBP COT Report

The pound and the United States fluctuated and fell on Thursday, hovering near the low level in September. The overall bet on options was not strong, and funds were mainly scrambled around 1.15.

In terms of options, there is no obvious departure from the short bet below 1.15, and we still need to be alert to the downward action. The first support below is 1.145, and the break below may look at the first short target of 1.14-1.142. If it falls here, the pound may enter a new low range of 1.13-1.14 for the year. 1.13 is the short target of the midline of the option, and 1.135 has certain support during the period.

Conversely, if the GBPUSD returns to the top of 1.15-1.152, it is expected to ease the short-term weak trend. In view of the cautious long bets, the rebound can only focus on 1.155 and 1.16 for the time being. Among them, 1.16 is a long target for a short-term rebound.

Australian dollar COT Report

The Australian dollar has been less volatile recently, and the options market has made large bets at points near the current price, and there are obvious differences in the market.

Above 0.675, there are 1220 put options inflow, forming a strong pressure on the Australian dollar, but it is also the dividing point between long and short. If there is a smooth breakthrough, the upward momentum can be further expanded. 0.68 is the first bull target, but there are also big bets on put options, and it is difficult to see a big rally in the short term. 0.685 is a secondary bull target and a point of contention between bulls and bears.

In the day, Australia and the United States also need to pay attention to the defense below 0.67, the bulls support is weak below 0.67, and the action can expand under the vigilance of breaking the position.

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