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Commitment of Traders Report, September 21, 2022: Gold fluctuates in a narrow range, slows down and increases positions, and bets on both ends of crude oil intensify competition

Commitment of Traders Report, September 21, 2022

Gold COT Report

In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is about to come. In the face of huge uncertainty, funds have slowed down the progress of betting, and only a small amount of increased positions in several key positions such as 1680 and 1650. It is expected that the US market will still fluctuate within a narrow range. Option action is limited between -1680, and only 1667 has some resistance.

In terms of capital, 1682 added 297 put options, consolidating the position of this key resistance. Once it breaks through, it is expected to test 1702, which is also the first target of bulls. Only after stabilization can we have a chance to look at the second target of 1727.

Below the current price, the differences between long and short positions are mainly concentrated at 1650, where put options have increased by 231 lots, which is the first target for shorts.

Silver COT Report

Under the stabilization of gold and silver prices, the gold-silver ratio has rebounded temporarily, but the silver ETF has continued to inflow in the past week. Compared with the outflow of gold, the inflow of funds will bring certain support to the silver price.

Yesterday, the overall change of options was not large, especially the movement of options near the current price was small. Among them, 19.25 was dominated by stock funds, and the competition between long and short positions was fierce, becoming the first support in the day. Below this, it may test the key intraday support of the 19 mark, which is also a key level of order flow.

Above the current price, although the price was repeatedly blocked at 19.5, the bulls left the market weakly, suggesting that some funds are still betting on a breakthrough. Once it stabilizes at 19.5, it may challenge the early bullish target of 20.

Crude Oil COT Report

Crude oil continued to fluctuate in a wide range, and bulls and bears still entered the market one after another to bet on both ends. As the interest rate decision is approaching, the options chips near the current price increase, and the competition between long and short positions intensifies, and the fluctuation of crude oil may gradually converge.

84.7 Although there are many bulls in stock, bears still have the upper hand, suppressing oil prices. The bulls and bears are fighting at 86.7, and it needs to continue to break above to see the recovery of crude oil’s upward momentum.

On the other hand, below 82.2-82.7 is the first bearish target, below and then down to see 80. Overall, there is still strong resistance above crude oil. The 10-day and 20-day moving averages form strong suppression at 85.7 and 87.7. Short-term crude oil may still be dominated by shocks. The change in risk sentiment brought about by the interest rate decision tonight may indirectly disturb the oil market, but the market is still dominated by supply and demand.

EUR COT Report

The euro continued to fall since the European session on Tuesday, falling below parity, and continued yesterday’s decline after the opening bell today, but it is still above the support level of 0.995. In terms of options distribution, long funds mainly leave the market above 1.01, and are not optimistic about a sharp rebound in Europe and the United States, while short funds have added a lot of bets in the range of 0.98-0.99, which may be waiting for the hawkish expectations of the Fed tonight.

On the downside, there are a lot of short funds leaving the market near 0.995, which will be the first support for Europe and the United States to fall. If it falls below, it may look at the short targets of 0.9875-0.99 and 0.98, and these two target positions are bearish and the funds are dense; as for the upper parity At 1.005 and 1.0075-1.01, the rebound target will be 1.005 and 1.0075-1.01, which should be noted that there is some resistance at 1.005.

GBP COT Report

The trend of the pound and the United States followed the dollar, and it continued to fall since the European session, and then found support above 1.135, and remained within a narrow range at the opening today.

In terms of options distribution, the long and short sides are basically arranged above 1.14. If the resistance breaks above 1.14, the GBPUSD may look to the long target of 1.145 and 1.15, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the resistance near 1.145. On the downside, the 1.135 short funds are densely stacked, which will be the target and support for the fall, and then the 1.13 put options will appear to leave the market, which will be the next support.

Australian dollar COT Report

The market sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see, and options have no obvious action, but the previous point with a large stock still has an impact on the market.

During the day, I still pay attention to the vicinity of 0.667. Currently, Australia and the United States are conducting the third test. After hitting this point, there are relatively strong buying support. However, options have a lot of put option bets at 0.67, and the shorts have strong suppression. From the volatile market on the 14th, Australia and the United States have shown a state of downward movement, and the shorts still have strong control over the market. Beware of downside risks. The upper resistance is at 0.675 and 0.68, and the lower short target is at 0.655.

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