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Commitment of Traders Report, September 23, 2022: Gold bears leave the market, the action can weaken, the near-end competition for crude oil intensifies and the resistance becomes stronger

Commitment of Traders Report, September 23, 2022

Gold COT Report

Gold did not go out of the way on Thursday, pay attention to whether the US Markit manufacturing and service PMl data tonight can give short-term direction choices. After testing the support near 1660 for many times, the options changes showed that the put options above 1653 began to leave the market, and the shorts who bet near 1633 the previous day also began to lighten their positions a lot, and the kinetic energy of falling below 1653 may have weakened. The short-term short-term targets below are mainly concentrated at 1643-1648.

The first support of the day is the order flow key at 1668, followed by 1663-1664. As long as it stabilizes above 1653, it may continue to fluctuate in the 1653-1698 range if the bearish momentum weakens. Above the current price, call options are intensively increased at 1683-1703, and the demarcation point of short-term long and short sentiment is at 1678. Stabilization is expected to continue to look around 1693 or even 1700.

Silver COT Report

Silver’s hourly line is in a convergent triangle state, facing the resistance of the daily downward trendline above (19.8-20), and the hourly upward trendline support (19.45) below. Currently, we need to wait for which direction silver will choose to break.

In terms of options changes, 77 call options at the strong resistance 20 mark have reduced their positions, and at the same time, the 19 mark put options have also left the market. It may be that the demand for hedging has weakened after the risk event.

Near the current price, 19.45 became the first short-term support, the 19-19.2 support was denser, and the key support was still 18.95-19. If it can stabilize above 19.45, silver still faces the key resistance of 19.7, and it is expected to challenge the 20 mark if it breaks above.

Crude Oil COT Report

Crude oil continued to fluctuate. Judging from the changes in options, bulls and bears were betting on the far end, and the competition at the near end intensified and resistance strengthened. The market has not yet made a clear directional bet on the future trend of oil prices, and the previous point still affects the trend. During the day, we will pay attention to the 83 support level that has been tested many times before.

84 has many shorts entering the market, which constitutes resistance to short-term oil prices, while 85 has more longs entering the market, which intensifies the long-short competition for this resistance level. If crude oil continues to break out, it will further test 86.

On the other hand, the bears near 83 have signs of leaving the market. After many tests in recent days, there is a certain level of support. The bears have begun to relax their betting strength, but they still need to be alert to the risk of breaking down. The bear bet at 82.5 below is still relatively firm. Target at 80 and 78.

EUR COT Report

EUR/USD tested the 0.98 level several times after the Fed meeting, but all held the support. From the perspective of options changes, the call options increased by 3 lots and the put options decreased by 24 lots, but the stock is high, and it is expected that 0.98 is short-term short-term. Winning support, but a break below this level will trigger fresh bearish pressure with a target of 0.97.

On the other hand, the main focus of long and short range is 0.9850-0.9925. In this range, both long and short have increased their bets. It is expected that there will still be long and short competition. Only by effectively breaking through the 0.99-0.9925 range can we hope to get rid of the low and volatile trend. parity level.

GBP COT Report

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, which made the market market, the pound and the United States failed to break through the 1.1350 test many times, and returned to trading below 1.13. From the perspective of options changes, the key resistance during the day is at

1.1270, where both call and put options have increased by 134 hands, constituting a long-short competition, breaking through this level may mean that the short-term rebound momentum prevails, and the top is concerned about the defense of 1.13 and 1.1350 resistance. On the other hand, put options at 1.12 near the lows that have been tested many times have decreased by 38 lots, which may indicate that short-term bears have a tendency to take profits. It is expected to continue to provide support here.

1.11150.

Australian dollar COT Report

The Australian dollar is still in a state of shock and decline, and there is no obvious action on the options, but the bulls’ bets at high levels have begun to leave the market, and the market’s confidence in the upside of Australia and the United States is weakening. As mentioned in the previous report, the bullish support below Australia and the United States is weak, and the downside risks are gradually expanding.

The upper resistance is at 0.67, the short-term bearish target is at 0.66, and the secondary bearish target is at 0.655. If it continues to fall to 0.65, the advantage of the bearish stock below may expand the downward momentum of Australia and the United States.

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